What's Happening in the Global Economy



the Spring Meetings is one of the two big events of the year and the kind of global economic world the atmosphere at these meetings is is generally shaped by the mood about the global economy and the global economic growth outlook basically all the major economies of the world if you look at the top five the US China Japan Germany and Britain they all have problems u.s. growth is probably going to be slower in 2019 that it was in 2018 in part because the fiscal stimulus is gonna be fading and there's uncertainty about trade policy the near term risks relate to some of the uncertainty around what's happening in Europe and specifically the brexit but I remain committed to the United Kingdom leaving the European Union when the spring meetings take place we will know with a little bit greater certainty whether the UK is on the path to what's been called a crash out so no agreement with the EU but Britain leaves the European Union or if there's gonna be something that is more negotiated or at least allows for a negotiation to take place as for Japan you know here's a country that is gonna probably lose about a third of its population in the first half of this century so it's got this demographic crisis as its population ages and shrinks if Japan grows one percent a year that's pretty strong growth and then you look at Germany the biggest economy in Europe they narrowly missed a recession at the end of 2018 auto production has been down their export sector has really been hit by the slower growth in China and by US trade friction there's ongoing concern over us-china trade outcomes that Chinese have made some announcements that some of the structural reforms that the US has been insisting upon are part of China's own reform plan that's a good sign but it's also been reported and is widely understood that the final decision-maker on both sides will be at the very top so it's going to be up to President Trump and President Xi as to whether or not they have agreed on a deal I think there's a lot of anxiety about global economic growth about trade about some of the financial strains around the world I think the atmosphere is going to be very much shaped by those issues and I expect it not to be as happy as it was a year or two ago




Comments
  1. bilateral trade agreements can remedy this. the Financial industry's gonna take a hit. over speculation is the cause. you reap what you sow.

  2. the main issue was the rapid emergence of China as the largest economy, and threatened US domination.

  3. Dont play into the fight your neighbour game its how the more system intergrated marginalize others. Team sport is not really a competition it is a spectacle… Bread and circuses folks. The states name can be said allowed rumplestiltskin

  4. Oh look at that it is a very highly coordinated centrally planned system. Suprise! Not really!! The idea that the events are not preplanned is a farce. Lets dispense with the double speak and just openly work together to transition into the 4th industrial revolution and the 5th society and finally move beyond the labour management governed governer paradigm. It was never the better option nore did it really prove effective in meeting its own stated goals.

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