Trump’s not the problem. He’s a symbol of 4 bigger issues. | Ian Bremmer


The problem is not Trump. Trump is a symptom. If the problem were Trump it wouldn’t be
happening in other places around the world. We actually see all sorts of countries advanced
industrial democracies where people are getting angrier and they’re voting more and more
against the establishment. We saw that with the Brexit referendum, which
was before the U.S. presidential election; We saw it in Germany with the rise of the
Alternatives for Deutschland, an actively Euro-skeptic party for the first time since
World War II; We have nationalists in the German parliament; We saw it with the recent
Italian elections where they threw out all of the establishment parties and instead it’s
the Five Star Movement and the League, again Euro-skeptic, anti-immigration, populist political
forces. This is very unusual and it’s not coincidence. So why is it happening? One reason is because you have lots of members
of working and middle classes that feel like they are not doing well economically and no
one in the establishment is going to help them. “So let’s vote for some change. Let’s vote against free trade. Let’s vote against the support of the establishment. Let’s bring in something new.” Second point. A lot of this is anti-immigration. Demographics have changed an awful lot in
the United States, in Canada and in Europe over the past decades and a lot of people
feel – people that have come before say “Wait a second! You’re not taking care of me, but you’re
going to bring in these new people and these new people who I don’t necessarily like
or understand or trust? These new people who are getting benefits—but
what about my benefits?! It’s going to cost a lot of money to bring
them in. Are they going to steal my jobs? Are they going to cause crime?!” —Even though in the United States we know
that first generation immigrants don’t actually cause more crime than those that have lived
here. Nonetheless the willingness to believe that
those “other people are bad and a problem” goes up a lot when you feel like your government’s
not taking care of you. So that’s been a big piece of it. A third piece has been the military. You know the foreign policy establishment
in the United States has been very willing to support the U.S. getting into wars around
the world. But most of the sons and daughters of the
foreign policy establishment don’t actually fight in those wars themselves—That’s
also true of the political leaders that are responsible. As we know it’s the poor people, it’s
the enlisted men and women. They get sent off, their families are left
broken, their communities are hindered. They come back – Iraq, Afghanistan – billions
upon billions of dollars wasted on these wars, enormous numbers of people that are killed
or wounded or have post traumatic stress disorder. They come back they’re not seen as heroes. The Americans and the allies didn’t win
these wars. The Veterans Administration doesn’t take
care of them. So as a consequence you see those people getting
really angry and not voting for Hillary or Jeb. They’re voting for Bernie Sanders or for
Donald Trump. And then you have technology which is that
technology today is increasingly driving people apart. We get most of our information in the United
States from advertising companies that view us as commodities, products. They sell our eyeballs and our time on their
sites to companies that pay money to ensure that we spend as much time as possible on
Facebook and on Twitter and on the rest. That’s how we get our information. We’ll spend more time on their sites if
we are divided and we are narrower, and only follow the things we like, which means Democrats
are watching pro-Democrat sites and conservatives and Republicans are watching pro-Republican
sites. And there’s virtually no overlap. And so it’s fake news for everybody. It’s us versus them. That’s happening across Europe. It’s happening in Canada. Those four factors are driving us apart. They’re ripping at the fabric of civic nationalism
across all of the advanced industrial economies. And by the way, it’s happening when the
economy is doing really well. The United States today and the UK and Canada
and Germany feel more divided than at any time in my lifetime. And yet that’s when we can spend a lot of
money. So if that’s true, what do you think it’s
going to feel like when interest rates go up and growth goes down and we start laying
people off and we don’t have the budgetary space to give everybody a tax break? It’s going to get worse. So it’s very clear that this is a structural
condition that we have been living with and ignoring for decades and it’s getting worse. One interesting point. There’s one country among the advanced industrial
democracies that’s not experiencing this problem at all, and that’s Japan. If you go to Japan you’ll actually find
that the people are pretty much just as happy and trusting of their political institutions,
their leaders, their media as they were 30, 40 years ago. Now let’s look at all of the factors that
I just described that are causing problems in our countries: Economic erosion of the
working class. In Japan the population is shrinking fast. From now to 2050 it’s going to shrink by
another 15 percent, which means that even though the Japanese economy’s not growing
per capita they’re doing a lot better, so they don’t feel so bad. Immigration. Japanese actually let in almost nobody, so
as a consequence there’s no one that they really have a backlash against. It’s all Japanese, right? Number three. The military. United States fights in lots of wars, so do
our allies. Japan does not. Their military is constitutionally forbidden
from going abroad and fighting in wars. When they did support us in Iraq, they sent
a few hundred Japanese. They kept them far away from any fighting. Every soldier had like a million dollars of
insurance. They made sure that they were calling their
families every week. They really didn’t have backlash against
the military. And finally social media/technology, where
the Japanese as a government has worked hard to keep social media out of the political
space and the average Japanese adult isn’t on social media. Only about 39 percent of them are, compared
to well over a majority in the West. So the one country in the world among the
wealthy democracies that isn’t experiencing a crisis of democracy is the one that kind
of rejected globalism and its precepts over the last 40 years.




Comments
  1. So another media outlet sells out/capitulates to the corporatist scum. Fuck you big Think more like big stink.

  2. you all know what happened to japan once? usa was knockin at their door with all their military power and asking politely to either shut the fuck up and subordinate to the us-driven market laws only, dictated by them, or to get wiped out. japan always had that attitude to mind their own business and isolate from the rest when they were anything but a democratic state.

  3. I think a big factor in the disaffection of the middle class is economic gains since the 1980s have all flowed to the top 10%.

  4. The economy is doing great? By what measure? The Fortune 500 is doing great, receiving tax breaks etc. But wages are down over all. They are also stagnant; wages have not kept up with inflation. The average working person does not "feel" marginalized, they ARE being pushed to their financial limits. We are not imagining this.

  5. The elite keep shitting on the poor. This makes the poor angry. When poor people get angry enough, the rich people get pulled out of their mansions paraded through the streets, and then torn limb from limb. Obey the poor, or be destroyed.

  6. While Japan may not have accepted the trends of globalization within Japan, it seems pretty indisputable that Japan has benefited greatly from the positive externalities created by other countries embracing globalization. IE One can see Japan as a classical economic "free rider", and not necessarily a model to be copied across the world. Without understanding how much of Japan growth could be marked-up to the positive externalities of globalization

  7. Japan is a mono-ethnic country that keeps its nose out of other peoples business and they experience very little problems.

    We in the West are becoming Multi-Ethnic, the phrase "Diversity is our strength" is almost a religious decree to liberals, we stick our nose in everyones business and we have lots of problems.

    See the difference?

  8. Wow- just noticed the 'Charles Koch Foundation' bit at the beginning of this video: I can no longer trust a thing this channel has to say: you're just a cog in the wheel of the corporate propaganda machine!

  9. It's a shame that conservatives seem totally mired in an all-encompassing xenophobia. Because on that occasion when there really is a wolf in the sheep's pen, liberals will disavow the warnings from the conservatives, thinking it just another example of the boy crying "wolf". Islam will undoubtedly use this sorry state of affairs to its advantage.

  10. Oh yes !
    the Koch Brothers are my Heroes ~ they are the saviors of the world… on your knees peasants & worship the Evil Ones …😉

  11. 32 years ago Pelosi abd Schumer were in congress blaming everything wrong with the country on the newly elected Ronald Reagan.32 years later Pelosi and Schumer are in co gress blaming everything wrong with the country on the first term presudent Trump. And you think Democrats work for you?

  12. Collapse of the Postmodernist era and the birth of a new era. Some will regress back and some will move forward to a new level of consciousness. The new consciousness will integrate all the previous era's of consciousness.

  13. Interesting how he keeps inciting debunked trickle down Econ…and it looks like I'm not the only one who noticed.

  14. Lol, in order to prevent national oriented isolationism you need to become isolated nationalistic state. Well done, internetz! 😀

  15. "…people are getting angrier and they are voting more and more against the establishment…" Citation needed. Saying Trump isn't establishment seems like ignorance of the establishment OR gaslighting from the establishment.

  16. The problem is control, control over electorial districts (gerrymandaring) control over who gets nominated (don't matter who you want to vote for if their name is not on the ballet) control over campaign financing , control over attack adds, control over policy decisions made by superpack funded candidates, control over issues with 85% public support that are shelved by corp interest controlled government. in short he is the problem.

  17. "The one country in the world among the wealthy democracies that isn't experiencing a crisis of democracy is the one that kind of rejected globalism and its precepts over the last 40 years" Way to bury the lead on that one, saved it for the last sentence.

  18. Bigger think, the handful of capitalists, infiltrate into the politics and media. The capitalists control everything, it is not necessary the interest of the people.

  19. True true. Ignorance is root cause of all suffering / wisdom is the cure.
    Main stream media (corporate promotors) dole out the three poisons: anger, hatred, greed to the ignorant masses with a sweet “feel good” story plopped in to make the bitter medicine go down. Obey and pay your insurance!

  20. There may be a xenophobic or racist element to anti immigration. But I think a sizable part of anti immigration is caused by the fact that establishment politicians can quickly assemble a dependency constituency by bringing in poor immigrants and buying their voting loyalty through government spending. This essentially is vote buying and creates an artificial shift in political power away from the real producers and stakeholders in the country. That makes non-immigrant voters angry as hell. Then to be falsely accused of racism for holding this view is a further insult. It’s enough to make people talk of armed resistance to a corrupt and self serving ruling class.

  21. Nobody ever addresses the big white elephant in the room. Over population. The planet can comfortably handlet 4-4.5 billion people and we're now at 7-7.5 billion. Everything mentioned here is symptomatic. Of course the problem always is; who's gonna go first? Legislate sex out? Doubt it. Waiting for the BIG DIE OFF.

  22. Free Trade is Not Fair Trade .. > The #1 Responsibility of Government is to Protect their Populous > In Old days it was against Thieves etc .. but Today it is against the Find Them / Feel Them / F _ _ _ Them / Forget Them – Multi-Global Corps

  23. The IRONY, the Koch brothers, who have been financing nutjob teaparty nonsense for years, NOW, decide that the nutjob thoughts that resulted in Trump are a bad thing? A&*HOLES!

  24. Best not to resist the desires of the working and middle class (you know, the people paying most of the tax dollars to support social programs).

  25. Here in the US, Immigration is NOT the problem. The miserably ignorant throw immigration around like everyone who voted for President Trump is out with lynch mobs in the barrios.

    No, get this through your head. Immigration is welcome. Immigrants are welcome.

    But equivocating an immigrant who took the time and came in and went through the process with someone who breaks into the country by illegally crossing the border or getting a visa and staying under false pretenses is the ultimate show of where the problem lies.

    Greedy politicians conning ignorant voters into hating people who see what is happening is the problem.

  26. National sovereignty is an obstacle to the consolidation of global power, and this nerd advocates its surrender. He is being paid to persuade, and the crux of his argument is shame. Thats how you know the intent is manipulative.

  27. Here's a fifth problem…people like the guy in this video that seem to think they know everything and what everyone thinks about the world as well..they all need to simply shit the fuck up….Carry on..😉

  28. The 2 big political issues in the USA are: immigration, health care.
    What is interesting about this video is that it highly emphasizes immigration, and health care is completely absent.
    What this tells us is the unspoken political fact: the rich do not want to pay for the health care of the poor.

  29. The 2018 tax returns are coming in and the winners and losers in the 2017 Trump tax cuts are clear. Winners: Large corporations and their investors, the heirs of large fortunes, and the top 5% of households. Losers: Small businesses and low to middle income households, including the top half of the middle class. In other words, the other 95%. I've said it for 30 years now: if you're not making at least $250K per year and have a net worth well into the 6-figure range, you have no business voting Republican. They simply aren't representing you in any way. The party leadership made a deliberate decision to abandon the American worker in the late 1970s and they've stuck to it ever since. Every election cycle, they use divisive social issues to manipulate you into giving them another chance to shake you down and transfer the proceeds of your productivity to a tiny percentage who don't contribute in any kind of proportion to the astoundingly massive rewards they reap.

    Under the Trump tax structure, a dozen of the world's largest, most profitable corporations paid $0 in federal tax while receiving tax cuts totaling over $100 billion dollars for 2018 alone. Thanks to Republicanomics like that, the national debt is set to nearly double again. Those unpaid taxes and the $100 billion giveaway could and should have gone to public health, education and infrastructure, investment in small business, and debt service, which are all in crisis and rapidly getting worse. Most taxpayers who received $100 to $300 in new tax cuts under the Trump tax bill will end up in a few years paying more as a percentage of income than before the bill was passed, and that increase will also be passed on to the top 5% or fewer.

    Starving the federal treasury and bankrupting Social Security and Medicare while transferring as much of the public's assets as possible to the GOP's dark money donors are critical in achieving the ultimate long-term Republican dream of divorcing the middle class from our own mechanisms of self-governance, permanently breaking our power to challenge the plutocracy and look after ourselves politically and economically. They've spent 40 years building an upside-down welfare state for the 1% at our expense. We do the work; the very richest reap the rewards, leaving us just enough to get through another day at the office. It's the biggest ripoff/wealth redistribution program/social engineering project/con game in history, and we're the mark.

    People struggling to make ends meet in the rural heartland, Rust Belt and small towns across America had legitimate reason to grasp at what they thought was change in 2016. Lured by the semi-fictional image of Trump on reality TV, they convinced themselves that an egomaniacal billionaire grifter from NYC was somehow the answer to their prayers. Instead it was like gasoline on a dumpster fire. Trump makes populist noises because he's a natural at reeling in a sucker. Behind the con he's a one-percenter through and through, and always has been.

    The Democrats are beholden to deep pocket donors too, but not to the total extent the GOP is. If you're not a multi-millionaire or sure to be one soon, at least stop making things worse for everyone including yourself. The only way to regain our voice in politics is to quit feeding those who are starving us. Quit voting Republican until they're forced to work for us again. While you're at it, some of the same medicine would do the Democrats some good too, and will probably work faster. If real change is what you're after, quit feeding both mouths of the 1%.

    In case you're wondering, I'm a lifelong independent. I have never registered with any political party. I have never voted a straight party ticket. I tend to fall right of center on fiscal issues and left of center on social issues, but on all of them I'm a moderate.

  30. Excellent video, I, for one, am teaching myself spanish, I have never had or used social media of any kind, except for YouTube, but I use YouTube as a tool for information and getting different viewpoints, A 11 year YouTube veteran here. I'm open to immigration, but not trusting of certain financial institutions .

  31. America the land of the free. To rush to the borders of other countries to extract there whealth . Putin is there to exstract your whealth and influence. Terumpf and Putino, a match made in hell.

  32. Omg 😱 he just said that the Japanese let in no migrants and are happy. He’s practically Hitler’s right hand man 😱😱😱😱😱😱😱😱😱😱

  33. Rejecting Globalist and their plot to seperate people through social media and forced immigration is key to taking control of our country and our lives.

  34. It's the slaves that USA sends to wars.Rise of nationalism started around 2012.We see it Germany. Russia.France everywhere.
    People are sick of US mekinder foreign policy.The euro currency has decimated southern Europe

  35. OMG… i used to love those channels, i thought that only here in Isarael we have those suicidal tendencies when fat and wealthy fight for an enemy who sworn to eradicate us. I thought only jews had this shit, this analogue of Stokholm Syndrom… It apears that the plague has taken over whole of west. I see it now, it looks like the West is cutting its wrists. The young became cluless and bored from abundance so they seek it iside those gender, communist, sexist cults. We dont have a vilan to fight… we are done… RIP our hope for FTL drive in 20-50 years… we'll decay into religios fudalism but with tanks and assault rifles. Religion and abundance is worse that neuclear war.

  36. A White House economic theoretician, so a guy who develops the theoretical basis for managing economies, not some gumby who's two bit economics degree qualifies him to apply these theoretical structures at the bank he works at, told me in person that trickle down is a fraud wrapped in "truthy sounding" window dressing to perpetuate the status quo. He said, and I quote, " in my field, a successful economist, one who's theories are taken up and used by the system, is one who's theories best justifies the maintenance of the ststus quo of the day". You can believe me or not, I don't really care what you believe, but the Chicago School drivel is the basis for the failure of your economy and the wasteland it has made of your country and mine.

  37. Nationalism is appealling as well because of the tribalistic nature that it fosters. In the past, you would have rallying cries by war chiefs that could motivate the instincts of the populace to attack an enemy. Nationalism has that same type of instinctual aspect to it. A current example is the wrestling WWE's type of entertainment where strong men rant and energize the viewers. It has an evolutionary effect that hasn't left humanity yet.  

    The other issue is that there is some serious money to be made from immigrants by average people by being able to sell to their needs. They see their incomes as high when it is below average and use a lot of that as disposable income that I don't think people realize. Capitalizing on that and allowing small businesses to do so and marketing those that do can counter this distrust of immigration.  

    Technology is probably the biggest shift too. The people who use and enjoy social media the most tend to be the most toxic individuals or incredibly depressed or hired to do so. If they weren't, they would be out having a life right now instead of commenting on Youtube or Facebook or Reddit. We aren't just connecting the world. We are connecting the worst people with the rest of the world. Yet, we are connecting the best people too. It is important to connect the best.  

    Social media is a taste maker for political, societal, social, etc issues. When an event or piece of news happens, a percentage of people reads the comments too to see how they are supposed to react. What has been happening is that there are organizations that are able to push their own agendas by exploiting the systems of either social engineering or the site's algorithms. A lot of what has been pushing the Anti-Vaxx movement is exploiting motherly fear. Currently, they are trying to manipulate christian churches through destruction of holy monuments coupled with being able to create the reaction beforehand and script it to where they can exploit those who read it. Engineering the event beforehand and planning how to comment when it reaches the headlines with their fake profiles is at its core of how they are likely doing it. This has been happening for decades but now there is a more potent distribution system available. I could go on but the issues are a lot more complex than this but many people don't grasp how easily people are manipulated as no one wants to admit they have been duped.

  38. The problem is the government and didplacement of western limited government values perpetuated by both sides.

  39. The Koch Brothers are evil cunts. But even evil cunts aren’t evil 100% of the time. This channel is often opposed to the Koch brothers ideology, and you should be sceptical of his motives for sponsoring it.

    Libertarianism is a curse.
    It doesn’t lead to equality, because lawlessness doesn’t equal freedom. Libertarians simply don’t get it. Unfortunately, most Republicans don’t either.
    In a capitalist society Libertarianism leads to profit based outcomes at the expense of needs based.

    Fixing it doesn’t require a binary shift to communism or Socialism, but try and explain that to a Libertarian or Republican.

    The people that vote for change are just pendulum swinging. They didn’t research what to do about an issue, that just did the opposite, hoped it would work, created conspiracies when it doesn’t, and now all of us have to pay the price.

    Take internet neutrality. A libertarian believed that market forces was the appropriate methodology to use. This tit will essentially create a situation similar to pay TV. The companies will want ever increasing profits, they will achieve this by increasing prices while advertising lower prices. It’s why they noticed a shift to the internet and away from pay TV in the first place.
    The problem is, education is internet based. School kids need it, but, not all families will be able to afford it. What happens next? Pressure will be put on the government to subsidise it.
    In essence, a Libertarian, in his stupidity, will transfer responsibility onto the one institution that he wants to minimise. And he did it out of ignorance and belief.

    Americans have to learn that it’s not a question of Capitalism vs Communism. It is a question of where does capitalism work and where does government work.

    High school economics has provided the answer.
    Capitalism works in elastic markets, central control works in non elastic markets. Particularly essential ones.

    Americans routinely try and privatise essential services because of a concrete belief that the private sector will be more efficient.
    The evidence doesn’t support that belief.

    If you want to remove access to essential services for all, make them for profit and hand them to the Koch Brothers.
    Then watch as choice is reduced as items that provided a service but aren’t profitable are dropped, and you no longer have access to them.

    It’s not secret globalists with a communist agenda fucking up your lives. It’s your own stupidity, and those willing to profit from it.

  40. Please help me. I am looking for a big think video I saw years ago. It says that an advanced society needs to do away with its passion. That's all I remember?

  41. The agents of chaos want people to fight amongst themselves while they are gaining more and more control over the country/world.

  42. First silly argument is that"first generation immigrants don't commit crimes" if you are here undocumented that is a crime. So let's not intentionally blur the line between illegal and legal immigrants to make points buddy, this is only at 2 minutes in… Next

  43. Second silly argument. The USA military is a volunteer program so saying this it's somehow them preying on the poor is like dur dur dumb, they get compensated and none is forcing them to serve. Lol

  44. The Japanese use a honor / shame system versus the Americans who use a guilty vs. Innocent system. They don't litter in Japan because that's shameful. Americans litter all the time because no one's watching

  45. This is a bit inaccuate on the first two issues. ILLEGAL immigration. Not immigration. And it was never 'Free' trade'. Thats grossly inaccurate. The cost is there regardless of how the trade pendulum swings, whether its a front end tariff that is raised or lowered or an after the fact result such as job losses for a country based on the increase of cheap imports. Not to mention those countries who couldnt compete with cheaper exports by another country so they cant get into the market and their economy doesnt benefit. As in Mexico. You think nafta benefitted them? People are poor and trying to leave for the american dollar and to flee cartel controlled states. But others buy into the cartels because people cant make enough money legitimately. The GDP for mexico had stagnated since NAFTA. Who Daddy bush was for and Clinton signed once in office. It was a bipartisan initiative. So if trump is pulling out of syria, reworking nafta, and stopping illegal immigration, that isnt extreme to me. The rest is fairly accurate. Social media has people ignoring a discussion on the issues and engaging in name calling, whether it trump or someone who disagrees with their view. This video had a few good points.

  46. No, not "is the government taking care of me?" It's more like "I want the government to leave me alone, and I don't want it spending money my children have not earned yet to take care of other people who will change my country for the worse as far as I know."

  47. Forty percent of federal prisoners are illegal immigrants. 40%

    Stop conflating immigrants and illegal immigration. The left does this because they have no argument to stop letting criminals, who broke our laws, stay in the greatest country in the world.

  48. This guy is seriously out of touch!! People aren't against free trade – they are against trade with nations that don't play by the rules! They aren't against immigration – they are against illegal immigration. The Dems waged wars and Trump is pulling the U S out of them!

  49. The advanced democracies spent too much money on elections and nothing else. Promises upon promises made to the electorate but unable to deliver. This is Democracy, the most fu-k up goverence system in the world.

  50. If we think things are bad now, imagine what they were like in 1982. Or 1938. Or 1919. We've been through worse before and come out alright.

  51. YEAH it's going to get worse. Shrewd recognition that people are looking behind Trump's curtain and realize that he is a mere distraction for OLIGARCHS LIKE KOCHs to finalize the extraction from the remaining generation of people who enjoyed stable jobs and residence. WE DIDN'T GET A TAX BREAK. Slyly, no mention of ultra right wing propaganda by Murdock-owned 24/7 media, like Fox, in all these countries falling for nuvo-fascist memes. The economy IS NOT GOOD FOR US, only for the 1% at the top. MOST MEDIA ARE LYING ABOUT THE ECONOMY.

    Also slyly he threatens the loss of growth when we stop inflating the economy with debt. BOYCOTT STRIKE DEMONSTRATE VOLUNTEER while the OLIGARCHS still haven't rolled out the final version of authoritarian corporate fascism.

  52. Democrats = Transgenders, Homosexuals, Child Molesters , Anti Military, Anti White People, is that’s the Democrats…

  53. This is NOT on the issues I'm looking at . I'm looking at why a wall ( pretty) exspensive and a war that could drag on on a already broken economy to TOTALLY colapse it while Russia and china make plans to End a free world under a globalism that would swallow up the individuality of Free nations and the world . And China and russia studying the atmosphere to weaponize it like weve never seen in the world . so why the diversion to a wall issue fossil problem and a war that could totally colapse and already wrecked economy

  54. Julian Assange proved conspiracies are real. 🔪💉🦄📣🎉😃🦈🚩⚒🧠👺👹🗿🦂🐍

  55. bring in something "new" you say?. no, this is the old been tried and failed "new", this is not liking your haircut and voting to cut off your head "new"

  56. When you're 20 trillion in debt it's time to stop bringing people in until the budget is fixed and congress stops wasting money .

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