The DECLINE of the AUTOMOBILE Industry? – VisualPolitik EN


For more than 100 years the automotive sector
has been one of the most important industries in the world. For decades it has meant strength,
wealth and industrial power. Companies like General Motors, Volkswagen
or Toyota were largely responsible for spreading the tentacles of the great industrial powers
around the world. Folks, we are talking about amazing numbers: Every year, nearly 100 million vehicles are
sold worldwide; This industry employs tens of millions of
workers. This is just in the United States and Europe,
and to more than 20 million people. And every year, these companies invest about
100 billion dollars in R&D. It may be hard to believe, but companies like
Volkswagen, Daimler or Toyota invest in Research and Development almost as much as some of
the best-known companies in Silicon Valley. Check this out. In fact, with more than 15 billion dollars,
the German group Volkswagen is none other than the third company in the world that allocates
the most resources each year to investment and development. It stands just behind Amazon
and Alphabet. However, folks, just a second, because the
automotive industry isn’t going through its best moments… At least where popularity
is concerned. In the last 2 years many questions have arisen,
so many that, recently, it has led to the main question: Are we seeing the decline of
the automobile industry as we know it today? Could this sector’s good years be over? But… Now, do you want to know exactly what
we’re talking about? Listen up. (GIANTS WITH MUD FEET?) Lately, car manufacturers are criticized constantly. There’s constant talk of the electric car,
the autonomous car, car sharing, trend changes, changes in habits among the youngest or, simply,
a world of megacities where cars would supposedly become obsolete – At least private cars. All this is fueling the Peak Car concept,
according to which the automotive industry would be on the verge of reaching its historical
sales maximum, if it hasn’t already reached it. This means that from now on, or at least shortly,
we’d see fewer cars being sold each year. Not more cars, fewer cars. “When you put all these trends together,
you’re going to see a cap on personal vehicle ownership start to emerge. “We are near
peak car.” Mike Ramsey, an automotive consultant with researcher Gartner Inc.) As if this weren’t enough, governments and
the growing social conscience are exerting increasing pressure so that manufacturers
produce more environmentally-respectful cars. And this is all very good, but it presents
a slight inconvenience for producers: Developing an entire technology and adapting
all processes to it costs a fortune. Volkswagen said it will spend 44 billion euros
on electric cars, digitalization, autonomous driving and new mobility services by 2023.
REUTERS) German automakers will spend $45 billion on
electric vehicles over the next three years. Business Insider) But, we could of course think… Sure, so
what? In the end they’ll still be rich from car sales. And that’s precisely where the Peak Car
concept comes into play. Allow me to explain: if costs grow as a result
of the new technologies that cars have to incorporate and of all the investments that
companies have to make – for example in R & D or to adapt their production methods
– and then, sales drop… Well… it would soon lead to the collapse
of these companies’ margin or profit. Higher costs and lower income. Not to mention the risk that some will fail
in the transition and get kicked out of the market. In other words, we could say, folks, that
car manufacturers are facing a kind of perfect storm. A reflection of what all these concerns involve
can be found in the automobile companies’ stocks; that is, in the price of their shares. In general, these companies are quoted at
a price/earnings per share ratio that is much lower than the market average. Of course, given the circumstances many professional
investors won’t hesitate to consider them as value traps: They look like cheap stocks, yes, but as their
margins and profits are going to drop, well… They really aren’t. Now, at this point, before continuing, there’s
a question we need to ask ourselves… Why or how was the Peak Car concept reached? Listen up. (AN INDUSTRY IN DECLINE?) Friends, the Peak Car concept rose from an
idea: technological changes, trends and the world’s
increasing urbanization are going to lead to fewer care sales. See, one the one hand, our planet is increasingly
becoming a world of cities, especially megacities. The percentage of the world population that
lives in cities won’t stop growing. In 2050, 70% of the entire world population is expected
to live in urban areas And, logically, in these spaces, a car can
sometimes be more of a nuisance than a solution. Traffic, pollution… Many large cities have
begun to restrict the use of vehicles in urban centers. For example, in Shanghai, Shenzhen or Beijing,
license plates for cars with combustion engines are auctioned. That is, there is an annual
limit of new enrollments and if you want to get one you have to really dig into your pocket…
If you can or it’s worth it. Then, this process is reinforced even more
due to the growing environmental concerns that exist in society, that have led to new
car sharing formulas and an extension of services such as UBER or LYFT. That way, following the reasoning of the Peak
Car defenders, if the average time of use of the vehicles grows, fewer vehicles will
be needed, and if hiring a car can be comfortably done at any time with your mobile phone, well…
you won’t be as encouraged to buy one. Why spend money on a car that will spend most
of its time in a garage? And let’s not even talk about when autonomous
cars arrive. The result? Among other things, there will
be fewer cars sales. And not only that. Meanwhile, as the costs for motor companies
increase, and predictably so does the competition as new Chinese brands and who knows if companies
like Google or Microsoft delve fully into the business… the prospects for the industry’s
giants aren’t precisely good. Folks, these are the reasons why the big car
companies aren’t in style (in the stock market). However, lets pause for a moment before condemning
the entire industry to hell. Let’s ask ourselves a question, what if things
weren’t so bad? Can we find signs to think that the golden
years of the powerful automobile industry haven’t ended yet? Well, folks, we can. Listen up. (WHAT IS TO COME) China moved from the bicycle to the car in
just 20 years. Until 1994 the typical images of the country included streets crowded with
bicycles. To give you an idea, in 1985 there were fewer
cars throughout China than in London city. And to top it all, almost all those cars were
from the government. Less than 3% of the country’s passenger cars were privately owned. However, from 1994 everything changed. In
just 15 years, China surpassed even the United States as the world’s largest automobile market. Do you know how many cars are currently sold
in China each year? No less than 28 million cars, 11 million more than in the United States. To give you an idea of ​​what this entails,
General Motors itself, one of the great icons of the American industry, today sells more
cars in China than in the United States. The evolution, folks, was spectacular and
there was a reason: the enormous growth of the Chinese middle class, of which we already
talked about here in VisualPolitik. However, despite all this growth, the rate
of cars in China is still very low. It’s 5 times smaller than in the United States. In other words, there’s still a lot of room
to grow. But okay, you may be thinking, but Simon…
Now, with the changes we’ve seen, the Chinese won’t need as many cars. And, also, in many of its cities they’re
just annoying. Well yes… and no. We tend to forget it but the Chinese middle
class and the families’ purchasing power continues to grow strongly…. And even though
the percentage may be somewhat lower than in the past, families still want to have their
own car. And if they have money, then they could get
an AUDI, a BMW, a Mercedes… something typical. Folks, it’d be a good idea to take a look
at Japan’s experience. See, Japan has one of the largest urban populations
on the planet. 94% of Japanese live in urban areas and the
country also has the world’s most populated city, Tokyo, with 38 million people living
in its metropolitan area. Well, despite this, the aging population and
having public transport systems that range among the best in the world, the rate of vehicles
per capita is not only 4 times higher than in China but new cars sales remain stable. In other words, if we talk about probabilities,
I think we can expect the Chinese market to continue to rise for quite some time. But, the good news doesn’t end here folks. In the United States, sales are at record
levels, even if vehicles’ average age has risen to a stunning and record-breaking number
of 12 years. That is, if we consider that the US economy
has full employment, wages are growing and the way of life hasn’t changed – the cities
haven’t changed – it doesn’t seem probable that sales will fall permanently. Don’t
you think? Because together, China and the United States,
with nearly 50 million cars sold each year, account for more than 50% of world sales. “Right now, everyone still hopes to sell
more cars. I haven’t come across a single company that forecasts a decline,” Philipp
Kampshoff, a McKinsey partner who specializes in transportation.) But that’s not all. The big manufacturers
could still receive some great news: INDIA. A country with more than 1.3 billion inhabitants,
that even though had lagged behind China, is now beginning to wake up… The Indian government is building more than
20,000 km of new roads in a country where the vehicle rate is very low. Little by little, that is beginning to change.
In 2018 vehicle sales in India grew by almost 9% to 3,270,000 vehicles, overtaking the United
Kingdom as the fifth largest market in the world. By the way, the company that sells the most
cars in India is Japanese. Suzuki controls almost 50% of the Indian market. However, folks, that’s nothing. Just to reach China’s vehicles rate, India
would have to sell more than 100 million cars. And the strange thing wouldn’t be to think
that it will happen, but that it won’t. Due to status, freedom or comfort, families,
when they can afford it, want to have their own car. Just 20 years ago, we would’ve never thought
that China would sell more than 28 million cars a year. Of course, behind India there are also Vietnam,
Indonesia and many African countries. So, saying that fewer cars will be sold…
at least I think it’s fair to say that it isn’t that clear that it will happen. And regarding carpooling services, at the
moment the data tells us that what they do is increase the number of kilometers traveled,
not decrease them. That is, they make people use cars more as
a means of transport. Yes, UBER’s cars, or those from different Car Sharing platforms,
move for more time, yes, but they also cover more kilometers, so their average life is
lower than that of private vehicles. In addition, car companies themselves have
delved strongly into the car sharing-market in cities. They see a potentially huge business,
a new source of income. Daimler and BMW Plan $1.1 Billion Uber Battle.
Daimler and BMW are pouring more than 1 billion euros into their joint car-sharing and ride-hailing
businesses to take on the likes of Uber Technologies Inc. and Lyft Inc.The German venture is estimated
to become the world’s largest car-sharing operator. Bloomber) But okay, at this point, you may have some
concerns, but Simon, what will happen to the environment? Is all this sustainable? Well, sorry, but the question shouldn’t
be whether it’s sustainable or not, but how we’re going to achieve sustainability:
either with more efficient engines, the hydrogen engine or with the electric car. For example, along this line, in just 5 or
6 years the Chinese government wants more than 6 million electric cars to be sold in
the country each year. Cars that, by the way, aren’t subject to limitations in large cities. That explains news like this: “Tesla Plant Key to Musk’s Future Ambitions
Takes Shape in China. Three months after groundbreaking, Tesla Inc. is rushing to complete
its multibillion-dollar factory on the outskirts of Shanghai to capitalize on growing demand
in the world’s largest electric-car market”. Bloomberg) Anyway, folks, now you see. The automobile
market will change a lot in the coming years, but… Thinking that car sales will fall year
after year? Only time will tell, but beyond conjunctural,
short-term situations, it isn’t clear whether the automotive industry’s best times are
behind them. So I really hope you enjoyed this video, please
hit like if you did, and don’t forget to subscribe for brand new videos. Don’t forget
to check out our friends at the Reconsider Media Podcast – they provided the vocals in
this episode that were not mine. Also, this channel is possible because of Patreon, and
our patrons on that platform. Please consider joining them and supporting our mission of
providing independent political coverage. And as always, I’ll see you in the next
video.




Comments
  1. Sign up for Skillshare today: https://skl.sh/visualpolitik and get a 2-month free trial, big thanks to Skillshare for sponsoring this video!

  2. "…companies like Volkswagon, Daimer or Toyota invest in research and development almost as much as the best known companies in Silicon Valley".
    #1 (Amazon) and #6 (Microsoft) are not Silicon Valley, they're Seattle!

  3. Tesla Killers
    Audi eTron – failed.
    Faraday Future – failed.
    Jauguar iPace – failed.
    Lucid Air – failed.
    Mercedes EQC – failed.
    Porche Taycan – failed.

  4. Buy the old cars you want within the next ten years and never let go. Even 90's American cars are selling for 10k. Really! a Corsica with 100k. Its like a growing market but its not being publicized. No one is paying attention.

  5. If you were an American oligarch watching this, how long would it take for you to figure out that it's in your best interest to transfer as much American wealth to countries like China and India as you can? After all, that's a new virgin market for you that is around 9 times the size of the US market. So what if the people who made you what you are are cast into poverty? Roll up your carpet-bag and head off to greener pastures.

  6. UAW doesn't care about the decline they want more money!! Since Amazon doesn't pay any taxes they can afford a lot of R&D funds

  7. Not possible to accept that my phone is smarter than a car that cost 100 times more. The electric parts inside cars (and modules) are just a shame. Obsolete technology, no innovations for decades, no scalable building platforms, nothing learned from programming principles, unprepared technicians, too large model lifecycles without renewing, no possibility to factory-upgrade after buying a model, just third party tunning, no innovative financial packages for purchasing cars. And many more. No vision. And above all, NEVER lie your customers. Because you can escape many times but if they catch you one time when stars allign, you are done, no matter what you will do. VW is dead, they will cease to exist as they are now and parts of bussiness will be shared between concurence. Soon, Porsche will try to escape. Taycan is a failure. Where is Seat? Skoda become a midget. Peugeot still exists? All Jaguar models are failures. Land Rover disappoints. Mercedes aren't the echelon anymore, bitten by the mediocrity. Toyota is hanging only by their good reputation. Fiat will survive because have less rope. Renault should rely on technology more, not just on their motors and on Dacia (real budget car). Bmw is kicking at least (last to have a digital dashboard), laser lights, had courage with i3 and i8 that must be continued in other modern forms and they kept and nurtured a clearer signature in terms of style, than the competition that seems lost in the dark. American cars (except Tesla, a tech company and Corvette is moving?) are shit, less innovation, just muscle in straight lines and dumb styling.

  8. I personally feel the car sales increase in the US is an anomoly considering the US middle class is in permanent decline. You can blame that on the rising cost of living for medical insurance, car insurance, gas and having to commute much further to get to work. I expect the next 10 years we will be seeing huge declines in US car ownership as American middle class continue to shrink and driving costs will finally squeeze them out.

  9. Uber, Lyft, and these companies hanging hopes on self-driving cars will fail.
    If the car is owned by some corporation, nobody will treat it well. People will use them as toilets & garbage receptacles… So after ever passenger they will require checking/cleaning. Then quality & comfort of the interior will suffer, for easy maintenance. Imagine ordering your self-driving car after a drunk person puked in it, or worse… A person dies in it after using as their rolling private spot to shoot-up & OD.
    Then in traffic… The self driving car will be bullied by any & every agressive driver. Other drivers will bump into it & think, 'oh, self driving…. Not me! Bye!'
    Imagine car theft groups finding a market for the parts…. They order a car & track it, then at a random intersection it gets jacked up & stripped of parts.
    So the cars are going to need sensors & cameras, above & beyond what they have now, they'll need anti-theft fasteners, or custom(expensive) parts that won't fit other cars, and the companies will constantly be attempting to charge others for damages if they can…..
    Or they'll just be cheap crap boxes that smell like a rolling sewer, and most people won't ride in them unless they have to…

    That will be reality.

  10. Your videos could get to the POINT and be 1/2 as long if you didn't show a worthless video clip every 3-4 seconds. Just saying… Gets annoying after about 5 min.

  11. Boy, Toy sure spends a lot of $$ for such boring crappy designs! WTF does M$oft do…I'm still usign WIndow 10 for the last 5-6 years and never paid for it.

  12. I see so many comments that people are saying what's wrong with the auto industry. All I know is that I'm not sure if I can afford a new one and I make decent money.

  13. What about the demographic/economic death spiral Europe/East Asia/Russia/and even Canada is entering after 2022??? Fewer young people = fewer products bough..The USA on the other hand is golden!!!Millennials is the largest generation in American history!

  14. Soon to be a explosion of independent car companies. All car companies will just buy their motor & batteries. Just PRINT a fiberglass/carbon fiber body. Every city with over 200,000 population will have a car assembly plant. Moving cars from Mexico costs $1,500, they will NOT, be able to compete with local assembled cars.

  15. Who wears a a white cotton wife beater with a silk Polynesian flower short…a guy who needs glasses for his cheeks of course…so how can a guy who talks about the future of cars still be stuck 50 years behind in fashion…

  16. China – Dec 17, 2019 25% tax on all combustion powered cars.. Tesla China factory begins delivery Dec 17. Wish this could happen in North America also.

  17. COMPANIES WON'T FORECAST A DECLINE IN CARS BUT THEY ARE ALREADY DECLINING SOME DOWN 40% JUST DON'T EXPECT THEM TO FORECAST IT … THEIR STOCKS WOULD TUMBLE

  18. The slowdown in Indian auto sector is mainly because of the automakers itself they didn't updated their technology according to the time didn't updated safety and emission norms and produced low quality cheap cars and tried to sale at a higher price level people are no fools and decided to rather wait for April 2020 so that they can purchase cars that are compatible with new safety and emission norms also was factor of largest NBFC's exit from market that starved the market from cash and credit and if you own a maruti thinking of future investment well scrappage policy is on their way rather purchase some good cars and I pray that crash safety norms comes as soon as possible automakers making fools by selling coffin's on wheels

  19. Japan's year over year "steady" automobile purchase rate is due to government regulation: high inspection fees (esp for older vehicles), paying full list price for any vehicle you buy, and the need to prove you have a parking spot before buying your vehicle. This encourages people to buy new vehicles every few years instead of paying high inspection fees and mechanic maintenance fees. It also means that there are fewer broken down vehicles on the road causing traffic jams. Japan's mass transit is also among the best in the world so owning/operating a car is more of a privilege than a right.

  20. The problem is our mass production, disposable society is destroying the earth in order to keep jobs. So it is in direct conflict. Unless we are aware of this first there is no reason to have a discussion.
    We are obsessed with cars as a status symbol. We refused to develop a clean, fast, efficient, public transit system. Our cities especially in the USA, are all spread out for massive suburban sprawl. Getting away to the country is destroying the country. Not to mention all the industrial waste that ends up in the ocean. Humans are by far the most stupid animals in the animal kingdom. Yes , we are animals. No matter how nice the fancy English accent sounds ..😆🙄🤥

  21. That's what you think… not the fact. cars ownership will not go away any time soon. and car sharing is a concept not reality.

  22. Well, how many people in South Africa can afford to buy a new car. Yet thousands of cars are being made daily. Most factories are automated isn't. So the workers were retrenched. So they have no jobs = no salary. So who can buy a car????? You painted yourself into a corner, far from the door. You did not help much with the unemployment rate did you. Your industry deserves to die. Someone with humanity and brains will eventually take over.

  23. I personally believe the sluggish industry isn't because of the alternative transportation methods. I believe it's the opposite reaction, the costs and greed of the car industry has caused the alternative methods to arise out of need. People are opting for other means of transportation because the automobile industry has continued to price cars out of reach for the average person. And while many people are willing to sacrifice a huge portion of their income towards a car payment, many people are deciding that it's not worth it. Take myself for example, I can't afford a new car. I am forced to use alternative methods or purchase an older used car and spend money on repairs to keep it running, which is much more cost effective. A new car payment is frequently over $200 a month, or $2400 a year. The average costs of repairs run between $500-1000 a year, less than half of the new car payments. So until the car companies and their financing partners decide to make affordable car options for the average person, you will continue to see a sluggish environment. And as far as I can see, there's no plan in the US market for any affordable options to emerge and revive the declining sales.

  24. It's a shift – not a decline; Tesla can't make enough Teslas so that kills your decline BS – it's just a shift to non-owned autonomous vehicles. And just like Kodak and General Electric there will be HUGE old car companies disappearing forever. Cripes in LA there a ton of Scooters and Bikes you can use and dump wherever – no need to own a vehicle anymore that sits around the majority of time doing nothing for you. I'm sure the 1st semi-autonomous vehicle sales aka the Horse decloned before the shift to noisy loud-ass engines. It'll be nice to return the world to relative silence……..unfortunately I won't be around. ⏱

  25. I think your editing has gone from perfect, to slightly over the top: Interrupting every other sentence with a caption and video clip, with some rap track, is nuts. You a fully capable of minute long well articulated paragraphs, so this "Jake Paul" psycho/ Asperger style production is off putting.

  26. bullshit…
    So what happens if everybody calls an uber cab in the morning to get to work instead of using their own cars??? How many uber cars will be needed??

  27. So I have a 16 year Chevy S>U>V that I bought new. And my next new car will probably be a rechargeable electric assisted Bicycle for long times over 10 miles. Otherwise, My 28 gear mountain bike is getting more mileage than my Chevy. Chevy will sit there and get used once or twice a week, mostly for multiple surfboard carrying capacity. That is all.

  28. Bull shit all the tech exists just use what's available get rid of giant presses use small cnc tube manipulation machines flatten all the large sheds full of crap and use nylon panels lowing cost and labour put the redundant workers on ocean and beach clean up and recycling

  29. Good video, but in the future, if you speak about "ride sharing in the future" and omit the Tesla Network, it's a big, big miss. They will most likely dwarf everyone else in a few years, once deployed.

  30. decline in the U.S. is flat out the cost. ford ranger $25,000 in 2009. 2019 they bring them back and they now cost $50,000. full size trucks are pushing $90,000. who can afford them. they cost the same as a starter house 20 years ago. what do they think will happen when you price yourself out of the market.

  31. Why do these company's need r&d just make a good vehicle and keep making it. we really don't need new models coming out every year.

  32. I agree … rivian, nissan, bytom, and a bunch of other asians have 20k to 30k products that are more than amazing, why pay more? tesla at least influenced the "movement" away from combustion, and their solar, neurolacing, mining, software, AI, and other projects are not taking off, and these man cave garage people are trying to auction off their hyperexpensive designer combustions like crazzzzzzzzzzzyyyyyyyy

  33. 1:43 HOW do they manage to sell 100 million vehicles every year when the highest production year on record was in the 70 million range???

  34. 🌍👍We need to let go of old Internal Combustion toxic fueled cars☠😝💰 to clean autumnus green💚🌏 well made personal transport systems #buzzofftoxic 😀

  35. So much techno is awaiting to fit itsekf on earth in cars & buses and trucks that you can't even imagine.

    Something far advance is hidden in the future of cars on earth.

  36. Japan is not an automobile market.
    Its public transport system is far well developed.
    Japan is hub in technology in mechanical engineering usage in automobiles at low cost unlike Germany . Germany is bit high cost automobile manufacturers hub unlike japan.
    Just reverse section.

  37. I think it is not so much about the car industry declining in general, rather the timing of the older ICE technology becoming extinct. Already certain traditional manufacturers have developed their last new ICEs, and some, like Volvo, will never develop another new vehicle containing even an existing ICE. So the clock is ticking. Whether hydrogen gets any kind of foothold is extremely unlikely, because owners will grow to like not having to go to fuel stations. Of those who can't charge up overnight, most people can weekly charge or daily charge somewhere for little cost, and the speed is getting faster and faster. It's more about changing the habits of a lifetime than anything else. Oh, and EVs have got to get cheaper. And they will.

  38. I remember driving 600 km from my country place to Perth City for some shopping and was really intimidated by the parking options offered. You couldn’t be sure that you could shop and get back to your car before the time on the meter runs out and then you get slapped with an exorbitant fine. Back in my city we park for one or two hours in city central for free…..

  39. I think your completely wrong..
    This is a technology transition period , it's not shrinking at all. Look at China india & even africa…undeveloped countries who with a combined total of almost 4 billion people who have yet to buy a car.

  40. It’s not the decline of the automobile industry, it’s the decline of fossil fuel cars and the rise of electric cars.

  41. So f*ckin' sick of traditional car manufactures. They've not only ignored more ecological/sustainable solutions to powering them, but have ignored the "traffic" issue. In most major cities/regions, traffic is untenable. I'm so tired of it, I've begun shifting my "work" priorities in lieu of my independent projects.

  42. What happens when Tesla produce million mile batteries, that means a car with a 20000 annual mileage could last 50 years! Electric cars can last far longer than piston engine cars meaning eventually most people will buy used cars just like most people buy used houses and the demand for new cars will collapse. Also if you can hail a robot taxi in 5 minutes from an app why would you ever need to own a car that spends 95% of its time doing nothing and costs so much money to buy and run? This guy doesn't know what he is talking about!

  43. It sure appears automobile manufacturers are just pissing their research dollars away. They are spending far more than a Tesla has spent and getting nothing to show for it.

  44. Fixed costs are enormous for auto manufacturers. A maker must make a profit on each unit. Cars will become cost prohibitive. I think your best bargain is a used Chevy bolt.

  45. Utter BS, US car loan defaults are at an all time high and the car industry is in decline. US truck sales are down 41% this year. Don't believe me ? DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !

  46. The issue in the US is the price of cars and living keeps going up but wages have been stagnant in comparison. For example I make 2x what I did 15 years ago, but can barely afford a car of the same dollar amount amount. Purchasing power is greatly reduced.

  47. By 2030 their will only be self driving fleet taxi's and we will all have a subscription to a transportation service provider.
    Much like cell phone plans today. Buy a 500 mile or 1k mile a month subscription for 100 bucks or whatever and have access to self driving taxis that bring you anywhere you wanna go when ever you need.
    Or pay as you go for a couple of cents per mile if you have commitment issues 😉

    Self driving taxi ownership will be an expensive and especially unnesesary burden. If you can simply use the ones abundantly available around you.

  48. Maybe people are figuring out new cars are a money pit. NOTHING looses more value than a new car the very second it leaves the dealer. Wait 3+ years and buy used from a private seller, have it checked out by your trusted mechanic then make your best deal and pay with cash cash. It's already depreciated so when your wanting something else sell it and repeat. You'll be much happier with no monthly payments and less insurance cost to boot.

  49. Ten people in my extended family who are over the driving age but only three have cars. The cost and inconvenience of having a car is starting the outweigh the convenience of having one. I have one but now drive less than 1200 miles a year. The per mile cost is getting stupid.

  50. My prototype reduces knock in engines so you can then advance the ignition timing. Firing spark plugs sooner makes engines more efficient and powerful.

  51. Kinda half baked nonsensical accumulation of facts. Reality is that people want to be free and have a fewer payments as possible. Buying a new car has become something extremely burdening, specially with the declining of wages and higher prices. People are either keeping their cars, getting older cars that are easier to maintain and fix with a regular set of tools and this is slowing down the auto industry and it’s starving them of the capital to promote and build all these expensive and unreliable automobiles they and the government are trying to push down people’s throats. As you can see is the other way around. The number of automobiles in the streets is growing while new car sales are dwindling. We don’t want nor can we afford this government mandated agenda that’s mainly subsidized by taxpayers money. It’s the perfect house of cards.

  52. In the '70 the average car financing was 36 monthly payments then to 48, 60 on to 72 months then on to lease or finance half and the other half a few years later, now they are pushing rentals, and that is the end of the road. My question, why do we need 3000 to 4000 pounds of metal to carry our bones around? All those expensive SUV capable almost to curry our house around too, what a a piece of obsolete hip of metal. The almost obligated gigantic German Diesel polluting scandal is the very hard big crack of the German car maker. the latest ? WV is trying to dispose itself of priced jeweler like Lamborghini and some hints of Ducati too. Daimler is disposing its most priced one in the F 1 team starting 2021 The fact that Tesla is outselling all of the North America German luxury car segment, is starting another huge crack. Not to mention the European introducing of Tesla sales, almost all its European sales poached from the German luxury car segment, adding to the German automaker chagrin, finding themselves obliged to push sales on its ICE cars to stay profitable, but for how long? Considering the monthly record breaking World Tesla sales, destined to increase its monthly sales numbers for years ahead. I see only red ink for years to come, as well as some major big crushes, for the entire car industry, but leaving out Tesla, destined to incredible unstoppable success.

  53. Cars are too expensive, fuel is too expensive and to top it off, the same old road grids are getting crowded than ever before with more cars and impatient drivers. I live in a suburb of Vancouver (Port Coquitlam) let alone the inner city and there is always someone on my ass (tail gating or semi tailgate/pacing) when I drive my car.

  54. I can see fewer cars on the road, gone are those halcyon days of driving with the wind blowing in your hair what's arrived is a magic flashing revenue camera making you now drive like a turtle checking for spy camera's all ready to clip you for a quite a few quid. now the car is relegated to a mere A to B bit of personal transport so why bother, may as well go via Uber or some sort of car-share system. We've stopped buying cars we now lease for a few years that way we always have the most innovative car for right now, eventually we will have a full self driving car, put in the postcode of your destination and go to sleep, get to work and send the car home for others to use = one car will work for us all whereas we have usually had three cars, if we all did that the roads will be empty, Ford will be but a memory along with the other dino-car manufacturers

  55. not sure if I agree with your theory. If you take out the Chinese and Indian market slump in car sales, the industry as a whole is doing pretty well. The issues with the Chinese have nothing to do with urbanization and everything to do with communism.

  56. 2026 new “car” could be low emission home on wheels vehicles. Recreation vehicle RVs people live permanently. To eliminate high rent costs and homelessness. Room for scooter and everything person needs live comfortably.
    Abandoned shopping centers can be turned into parking areas for these vehicles.
    Benefits would be work from home, move the vehicle when ever needed work different cities, vacation.

  57. Yes fortunately, thanks to Elon Musk giant push to their precipice. they have been very unlucky for over 100 years, not to have discovered a true innovator in their ranks. So they concentrated their limited efforts in pushing forward in different versions an engine contraption, where half the pistons full time are working to increase deficiency, and the other half are true marvel of energy and heat waste. Sure they produced fantastic paint jobs, fancy knobs, super comfortable seats, and beautiful sounds, spending a fortune on fancy looking wheels, especially designed to be ruined at the first contact with the sidewalk, where you have to closely park it. But never cared to design wiper blades, timing chains, brake pads, tires and lubricating oil to last much longer. Imposing on the car owners expensive trips to their car dealer to take care of many rotating problems.

    So it is with vengeance that I take delivery of my Tesla without seeing a dealership, a true car from another planet, build by a true Genius, eliminating with a stroke of a genius 90% of the problems that motorists for over a century hated with a passion. never again needing to stop at a gas station, or obligated to visit a dealership for expensive maintenance work.
    Unfortunately I have fancy wheels a legacy from the grease monkeys of the past, but I am sure that as soon as Elon Musk will have some free time he will be able to design some wheels to last the life time of his magnificent cars without exposing them to parking damage. So RIP GM Ford BMW Mercedes, Porsche, Audi especially VW and all others, for your end is surely coming, having become impotent by your lethargic attitudes. We will not miss you.

  58. Does anybody realize that,  in the USA,  generation X is half the size of the Baby Boomer generation so where we fit in any marketing demographic sales have to decline !!!!! We are talking about New cars. When generation X becomes empty nesters build less.

  59. The GOP is doing what it can to prop up the US auto industry by torpedoing local mass transit investments at every opportunity.

  60. Automobile sales are "down" simply because the ENTIRE WORLD'S economy is 'down.' How can anyone afford a new car, or ANYTHING for that matter, when they are living in a tent?? Get real, folks. We are ALREADY in a recession, and the next great depression is right around the corner. Wait and see…

  61. "German automakers will spend "$45B on electrification over the ext 3 yrs"…these are vast misallocations of capital being forced on the auto biz because Governments kowtow to the radical environmental movement (read: Religion!). And it is misallocations of capital that cause huge disruptions in an economy. Sadly, most folks are clueless when it comes to finance & Economics (and Governments like to keep it that way, which is the primary reason Governments love to control education & they HATE home-schooling & Private Schools!).

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