EVE Fanfest 2013: EVE Economy



how are we doing ah great to see you all at the 10th anniversary fan fest for EVE Online the 9th fan fest in itself so you all have a reason to come back next year for the 10th fan fest and then of course the year after to celebrate the first year in the new decade is always a reason to be back my name is al recognition known as dr. ray og I have the title of chief economist for EVE Online and CCP as well as being director for research and statistics where we have a team of analysts that do nothing but study you and we know a lot about you excuse me we have a tacit to review and attack it takes a long time so I'm gonna try to go over this relatively fast and let's see how I do on my timing schedule does anyone remember this the first one so what has happened since and how do we actually describe a decade where you got massive massive amounts of data you have hundreds of thousands of people that have touched this game during the time it's actually in the millions there are few ships in destroyed a little bit more has been produced so how do you describe all of that what what's the essence of EVE Kripa well spur frightening there is nothing that describes Eve as well as titanium why because it's the essence of all it's the oil of EVE Online so if we just look at this line that shows us a ver its monthly prices and quantities traded on the on the market and we just walk through it it's the beginning this is from October 2003 when we opened up an increment in the decimal for trade in threatening and the prices started to move right after that from the beginning we caught even with our only population of 30,000 even at that point in time the market started to function for this particular product independent of EVE Online operators CCP so from the beginning European control well almost we sometimes do stuff and one of the greatest expansion in the beginning was cold war I brought in a lot of new stuff among other things freighters is there an industrial pilot in here yeah anyway anyone flown afraid flown a freighter come on okay just checking if it's the right crowd and that caused a disruption on the market tritanium started to flow and we saw prices decline even low quantities we were increasing then we entered the second phase where we had steady growth of tritanium traded on the market and steady increases in prices at the same time looking over the long run of course there are price fluctuations in that period now that might seem strange that is growing like this throughout the entire time but of course this follows the growth of the online itself so we can say that the area of coming-of-age by 2009 we are over 200,000 subscribers and aiming for 300,000 and then there came a downturn but why is there a downturn in price when everything is going well this is in 2009 2010 and in 2011 second yeah I can feel you are you shy orca one thing all the things part no there's no parts insurance takers we cannot put it this way it's quite a few of systems independently operated or not that they increase the amount of titanium available and causing a downturn on prices I'm not saying it's a BOTS or at all but I'm saying that everything has an impact and in general it's the adjustment and Tech 3 technology coming in because it had a considerable impact on the usage of battleships and in terms of production of battleships there's a lot of titanium going into that at the same time as supply was steady or increasing so demand was actually declining for titanium at the same time as the system was providing more than enough and then in August of last year we saw the new mining era common come into place where people were able to specialize their mining calling on Baker operations on and yes I skipped this period why would I skip this period well let's look more closely so this is basically some assuming out into that particular period 2011 12 and 13 this is relatively stable everything is good and then prices start to increase and yet quantity does not start to increase so the economics would work higher prices would lead to more mining it would lead to people going and changing their profession to make more money because notice the prices on the average is going from just about 3 up to more than 6 is per unit so how's the market failed is there a shift in demand there what's going on is it algorithm causing a bottleneck on supply at the same time as we were growing quite rapidly and the economy itself needed to grow well helping curtain was definitely acted in april/may some saying to do mr. Hong Kong in Hong Kong right now we haven't seen it very active but it's always there right is it both planning I will secure the team was able to come up with new methods and able to take them out on a regular basis or was something else confusion changes in the balancing changes in the supply indeed and then we see a quantity increase again when we see the new mining yeah I want to say the new mining interest reform and prices started to decline again so throughout the period of 2012 we can say it was a period of adjustment but the very fact that even us but have all the data it is difficult to determine and pinpoint exactly what it is simply means that we need more brainpower we need more of you to be studying this data more on that later let's jump a little bit more into mineral prices so these are all eight basic minerals put into one index there's a lot of talk about inflation Eve well from 2004 and until 2010 early 2011 the mineral prices decreased by 40% sure they took a jump during these transitional changes in the market when we took away salvaging and changed the looting etc but prices are still just about the same level that they were back in the days in fact it's only a 0.2 percent inflation per month if you look at this an average number look at the battleships this is the price index for the battleships all tiered battleships no special functions and look at the mineral price index no I did not screw this up it's not the same line but why does it fall together subsidized 98 percent correlation well that's simply the composition of the battleship minerals that goes it go in it are basically all basic minerals that are used to be able to produce it so the basses it becomes the best index for mineral places but it also shows that you guys are quite efficient and prices are determined by supply because you guys are so quick to adjust to any price changes on the mineral market it's a really really efficient market let's look at the main price indices here we have split them up from mineral prices the light brown line to consumer price index that's a little bit darker orange yellow line and as you can see if we use 2007 as the indexing point where everything is set at hundred prices before and after the periods are quite different in the earliest from 2004 run to 2007 the the markets they were adjusting any change would have a significant impact there was also the introduction of various different features such as moon mining tax and tack to technology then counter that with invention we have planned to the interaction where it's changed the supply of secondary producers with secondary products products that I used to produce all the items and the Lucases so all of these balancing rebuilding have had an impact over time but because the system works it is quite efficient in adjusting to this new information this is the best proof that the eve online market is a truly efficient and functioning market able to react to changes almost instantaneously and you cannot believe how happy I am to able to say and show that the instantaneous changes to existing economics because as a teachers I've been trying to tell student that for 15 years and they didn't believe me now I have the proof thank you guys you have a proven proven it to be correct but if we put a line there which is which would be nice table prices you can see that the price level after 2007 is actually quite lower than before so why do people talk about inflation so much well sorry to say it but just like voters you have very short memories you of course just look at what's happening last week last month and there can be significant price changes during that time period let's look at some examples the yellow one is the consumer price index same yellow line as we have in here and we have put three ships in there the rift or the tanker and the Irish the rift er has increased in popularity so even if it is a tack one item that should reflect it prices in the minerals that are presented into it it is still being sold at the higher prices and changes in a different price pattern than other goods on the market their demand is in place one of the most popular frigates to use in all kinds of operations over the universe creates its own specific price pattern so a person that's just thinking about buying another if there might actually see it as a flight inflationary economy then there's the question but you know money doesn't get me anything anymore back in 2003 October this was a big ship and with the ecent v it cost you 100 million discs do you want to guess what you can get for a hundred millions a day yes some are you need to you need to operate the dancing a hurricane even tack 250 turrican with dancers progression indeed going from tack one to tag to same prices another indicator of an efficient economy that is able to give you guys more stuff better stuff as time evolves think about your computers think about the computer you bought back in 1995 how much did it cost you give me a rough number of quick $2,000 what does a good computer cost today mm you wouldn't buy anything but the top end of the line gaming computer would you so basically you would be willing to spend the same amount of money but you're just getting a better computer today than you got back in 1985 same for Eve so technological change gives you more than in the past which allows you to work harder earn more money soaking in primer things and just do it all over again so you thought you were escaping the rat race oh no it's ee7 Eve let's look at the wrister again here you see that the drifter has increased in prices by 69 percent over the period but who doesn't like riff this even legatus would you buy one just checking that free strategic losers who bought one for a billion poor you prices down by more than 40% simply because the price pattern for a new item is obvious that there is always somebody who wants that first item iPhone anyone so revisiting this question of why do people feel and complain on the forums almost about inflation it's just because the scope isn't the same as us let's look at the system in its entirety and these are nothing abnormal there's nothing bad with complaining about prices of course should be complaining about prices all the time it just gives you a little bit more perspective when you look at the whole decade of price movements and I am actually quite proud but CCP was April in the beginning to create a system that's been this staple throughout the years of course we had to do a twist and tweaks to get it there but it happens because we are always trying to do better and if you guys interacting and testing the systems even taking it to its boundaries at times makes it such that it becomes better every year now let's go to back in time think about some interesting events as an example the biggest trading day was on November 29th 2009 it had 1.6 million transactions that's 19 transactions per second throughout the entire day there were 85 thousand ships that changed hands there are 70 6.8 billion units of titanium salt and 20% of all of that happened in the fourth and that ratio has only been increasing but is it a bad thing that the biggest trading day was back in 2009 did eve die No first of all you can see that there's a fluctuations in imperiously periods until today from 2009 but also a lot of things have been taken off the market it is actually an indicator of the health of the system because items of the previously sold by NPCs have been moved over to you guys so the only items that are sold today are the one that we need in order to maintain the balance of hisk and again we need syncs every time you buy a blueprint every time you buy a steelbook we get a sync well destruction does anyone remember this one yeah this is actually a video it's just a little bit like e fun facts about destruction from the beginning of time more than 200 titles have been it have been destroyed not some trait in one single day 1500 battleships were destroyed in PvP but since 2007 more than a million battleship set in destroyed who was giving it biggest most often given the final blow yeah let's break but this is my absolute favorite I just have to show you this and might take my hat off for the pilots of ether and Mark force now if this is not hardcore pvping i don't know what is now the biggest day unfortunately this doesn't show up quite as well maybe you see do you see when the biggest day was oh yeah only he only I was there you say only see the value not the modules on o2 o 2x that was an expensive day just see value was 1.6 trillion compared to a sekai that's a lot so as you can see the economic cycle continues and what is interesting to me is how consistent the PvP battles and kills are between point 2 and point 5 trillion from 2007 and until today that is a lot of ships that need to be renewed which is why you guys are here so you can understand the market better and make more money so back to the present let's look at what's happened in 2012 and 2013 quickly here a new quick Year in Review gives us three expansions new ships mining changes balancing of resources iterating on current systems factional Warford changes bounty hunting and all lots and lots of other warriors fixes and improvements and the best way to look at that is to look at the GDP of EVE Online what we call the gross user product the value creation in EVE Online you can see that from January 2012 and until March 2013 the nominal value has increased that's a good thing economy continues to grow it's even grown in real terms even a better thing so the economy economic engine continues to operate as suspected it's all the changes that we put out with all the interest that you guys give us it just keeps on going we even been able to keep consumer prices quite stable our goal is to look into what's going on whenever it's more than plus or minus 1% change every month and these peak that you see around expansions and the valley is the long period in between and everybody goes back and licks their wounds and tries to prepare for the next one but you can see here that it's kind of calm down these two peaks and don't forget our latest expansion retribution has been one of the most successful expansions if not the most successful expansion we had so in terms of balancing within the year we are quite happy what will happen next year are we going to see similar fluctuation just above the targets or is it gonna look like this I will tell you a secret there are interesting times ahead and I actually know more about it than you think and you will know a lot about it this afternoon don't forget to attend the keynote in the afternoon don't have too many peace before because you will want to know this I think well not if I tell you a little bit about what I know I think this will be the biggest changes you've seen in resource balancing manufacturing and anything that are still with the gameplay that you guys attempt there are interesting times ahead we can even say that the martini will either be shaken or stirred which this guy will say I don't give a damn as long as you guys make money you will be happy but it will be awhile trite and talking about wild rights every time that you guys are producing something to replace something that is being destroyed stuff needs to be moved around so what this graph shows you is the production is happening in the high tech and low tech which are the blue green yellow is numbers and destruction is happening in the red section so stuff is moving back and forth in order to be produced in one place and destroyed in another back to see it sinks and faucets another success story for the year if you look at this graph in in some look at the some of the details on it you can notice that the see misc faucets are quite steady around fifty trillion is per month growing up towards sixty trillion towards the end of year which is normal because the economy was growing what is more interesting is the bottom part where you can see the faucets necessary the sinks increased from about twenty trillion to just above thirty trillion so it's this area here that is quite interesting we were able to do a fundamental shift in the way that sinks operate and Eve where sink versus faucet ratio is now up to sixty percent and holding those of you that attended last year know that I was talking about we needed more sinks it was we were able to do so in this year and if you look back on this graph you can see a lot of it that's coming from the LP stores and also from the increasing sales of blueprints and skills so we are able to maintain those two major sinks out of the system so that's a good thing and it came about with a loyal deposit or change it came about in factional warfare and that's an interesting story to tell you this is the flex market since the beginning of time it's been growing steadily with prices moving from this three hundred million mark to the five hundred million mark and then this happened bless you at the same time as we saw a big dip in trading of Lexus what was going on we needed to know does anyone remember this we will intervene if its stability is severely threatened and if you look at this more closely you can see that the prices in late September or early October we're getting quite high on a daily basis they were above 600 million I'm not so worried about the price in itself it is the rapid change that is happening they're working with the with the with my team working with the development team as well we were able to figure out that the link was factional warfare but the interesting part was that it wasn't is coming into the game if they're simply the amount of ASIC they were able to earn in the period what do we do prices are going up quite fast it takes time to make and deploy fixes we had to use our tools we came and intervened on the market and as you can see we were able to stabilize that my prices luckily for everyone development had already made a fix I was going to deploy it at a later time in the year so with some great work from everyone getting that fix ready if we were able to deploy it within two weeks and as you can see the fixes brought prices back onto a more healthier track this is exactly why we put out the statement last year that there might be situations where we have to enter in we sold about 2,000 flexors during this time didn't you take much I had a lot more in stock able to do and do some interesting trading so able to say bless Tool Works and of course all of this was communicated to the season at the time in order to keep up with our contract that we will do this in close cooperation if the community at any given time so what will happen here interesting times good answer the point being that we we will be monitoring this market even more closely in the coming year to make sure that all of these balancing changes that we were expecting and you will hear about in the keynote lecture later later on today it will fall a correctly into place we will keeping an axe try after Odyssey so the decade has taught us the system works but monitoring is needed tools must be available and as you excuse me as you guys get richer the chance of an inefficient market and in an and if inefficient market manipulation happening at some point in the future increases we wouldn't want to have another global financial crisis would be you're right because it was never one person in another universe where we had global financial crisis ours is stable the second decade how do I see the second decade form for us the industrialist traitors those who create stuff you need if is it so in order to understand it we need some help you guys are smart and you like numbers and there's a lot of numbers and the database just keeps growing so I want to get some mileage out of you guys and I think the second decade is going to be about player driven analytics based on official data so you guys can do the predictions so you guys can try to understand the market and debate amongst yourselves some of you might ask well will you not be out of a job my answer will be very simple if I put 10 Eve players into a room and ask them to give me an opinion on what happened I will get 12 opinions and probably start a war one of the analysts on the team used his our capabilities to run this technical analysis of the robotics does anyone remember robotics and PA what you see here is quite interesting yes there was hoarding in the beginning but the price spread very quickly closed where the prices the green and the red is the price change on the market the grey line is the production cost so you can see that very early on the market or selling at the higher prices and non production cost which means that it was not an oversupply even though there was hoarding the beginning this type of analysis can now be run in various different software packages so if you guys had this data you could be providing stuff like this it's another one heightened systems sorry I'm jump over that one or not as you can see the production price per unit is quite higher than the market price this is the market price and this was the dual volume so those of you that bought quite a bit of patent systems around the PA changes you are still sitting on them because they haven't all been sold and used and prices are still below what a production cost is an example of how balancing can sometimes not go in the in the direction that we wanted to go an example of how important it is to understand each and every item in eath so that we can react to it and there are 9,000 items or so we need a lot of brainpower to understand this and here's Plex and I'm revealing a secret here you can see that plexus used every month is quite in line with what is try traded which means that the market is really quick it's really efficient and there's a lot of demand so I'm expecting this to continue into the next year and with all the changes of coming in Odyssey you will see quite interesting time of this market as well and tritanium so just imagine the wealth of information the debates that would happen if you guys were able to work with this data directly in the future here you can see how there is an under under supply on the market at this particular time this is the period we talked about earlier trade is going down there is the desert there's a lack and hence lack of titanium enter into a system and hence prices increased understanding why that happens is where you guys can provide the best info and here you can see again as soon as the trade start to increase again through through the or changes to remaining changes that prices start to decline so the second decade in my opinion my humble opinion will need more brain power not only because of Eve growing but now we have the connection of the test and those of you that attended the lecture yesterday they got an insight into how complex how vast how big how enormous our new world will be it will be the largest inter inter connected economy in the virtual sphere on this earth and just continues to grow yes let's give it a hand because we will need you there's a lot of work ahead for you guys and we see this happening over the next months and years to be coming online we had data dumps as we have tested in the past and we will continue to test but once crest is fully online our operational is nothing stopping us from distributing specific type of information through that as well this is going to be an interesting dialogue to have with the community in the next year or two while we continue to evolve into the future and no I'm not promising this tomorrow and no it is not soon tn it's the second tacit GM because in the end this is all about you cos you are the core we know you you have an average account it's about 35 months old you're playing session is just over three hours you play – in the 46 days out of the year eighty-four percent of you are members of a player on corporation a quarter of you have joined through a friend's corporation 39 percent became on the aware of Eve through through those friends fifty percent usually play solo fifty percent usually solo and only 25 percent usually play in a group or a little a lot of work that needs to be done it's a lot of mining there's a lot of missions that are needed to fund all of this most of you are likely in an IT professional and you love numbers so we know that you are the smartest hence we will utilize your brainpower in the next packet and of course you all look like this I mean we can take it even even further what would stop you guys from building stuff like this this is showing people coming in to email eve online from different continents starting in North America moving over to West Europe beautiful absolutely stunning just imagine with all of your technology all of your skills what could be made because eve is about the community eve is nothing but you and you know best what to get for for this community so it's been an honor flying with you all for the past five years I continue to enjoy each and every day and I hope that you enjoyed the lecture in the spirit of gathering data community feedback and so on there's a QR code that you can scan an answer a survey and I will get live feedback right after the survey please go ahead and and test this and this is not a work of only just one man if I get my team here open states as well or at t– he is a guy who works on eve data and created the ours chart that you saw lupa our market researcher basically providing the information where you answers service to us and thank you all for answering the service throughout the years christen a new guy on the block joins us in september he will is the one who provides information about just doing just analytics and chart on the pricing guy who provided provided us with all the graphs and so on on prices and Eve markets this is the team and all I do is just to show up in space so thank you all thank you for attending thank you for being in Iceland I'll take some questions right after this one but once again love to seeing you love to go on a pub crawl tonight let's have a blast Thanks thank you questions there is some microphones somewhere here please come up to the microphone you have four minutes for questions the intervention for plexes where did the stock come from the stock came from plexus that we acquired through means how should I put it there are some plexus that happen to be on accounts that happen to be piles so there is a circulation of plexus in the system so the short answer is we did not create plexus we we have a stock where we can buy and sell on the market we acquire it from the permanent account and we acquire it from our own trading this time around we had enough so p.m. came from goon fleet Scarpa and goon fleet economic warfare cabal excuse me you have to read again I didn't hear for me so two questions from the guys back home what's the value of total assets currently in EVE not Isco assets and then the guidance systems chart that you showed do you think they're getting close to depletion or other PA goods that were stockpile running out or what's going on there two questions what's the total value of everything and the other one is the guidance system stock pilot running up the stockpile is getting low but is not empty and maybe we'll have a time plug on that data do you want a template for Mattie on this issue well it's not gonna do it for this you have to give him more encouragement so you want to that lock you got it that book the other question what's the value of everything we have never calculated the value of everything in the universe as such so that's another tablet for captain thank you good morning dr. arm you're naked from the night sunning of the twenty-minute Alliance I would like to ask you on a personal level what has been during years you've been with CCP the greatest disappointment and greatest surprise for you during your work my greatest disappointment throughout the years and the biggest surprise big questions big questions my greatest disappointment has really been not being able to give you guys what you need we had the Killians going for a couple of years we've been trying to keep up the dead box but simply due to lack of time and complexity with regard to I understand you guys we've been being unable to serve you to the level that I want so that would be my greatest disappointment and that's something I can work on and I intend to do so in the second packet the other person what's been the kind of the picker surprise everything it's been absolutely amazing I first had a lecture on Eve back in 2004 I found the concept interesting challenging and quite exciting but continued in my academic career three years later they advertised for an economist so I decided to test this see what was going on I understood the systems I understood the what they were aiming for but I had no clue about the death no and that has been really exciting to see how deep it is to see how interesting it is and how it just is constantly evolving and changing thank you I have a question about the market introduction with the Plex how was it come to the decision that you should get involved with the Plex intervention instead of waiting to see how the players would take care of it because we were seeing a shortage of plexus on the market but what the first thing that caught our attention is that quantity available to be traded all of a sudden starts to drop and we were worried that the market would not be able to interact quickly enough because the market really didn't have that information and that's why we're seeing prices increasing so so quickly given the fact that the the balancing issue of factional war first needs to be dealt with we had all indication of a bubble a bubble that would rise high and then explode in office and that is what we did not want to have but it was a tough call the reason why I ask is because with the economy supposed to being player driven and being a sandbox you can view the intervention as pampering with the sandbox absolutely absolutely and as I said it was a tough decision and one that we do not take lightly but and it's a decision that I don't make unless on my own we sit down we review the data and we sit down with all the individuals involved and put forward the options and this time this was the decision next time we all have to do something like this we just go through the same process we reviewed the process with the CSM and if you review the meetings meeting minutes from the last year's and meeting in in December you will see a little bit more in-depth information about what type of discussion happened around the topic but the best that I know they were satisfied with the information were able to provide them with on the issue answers your question yes thank you how are we doing on time two minutes over one last question sorry to have to ask one more about the intervention you said the you used flex phone band accounts or similar what will you do when that stockpile runs out in that case I'm assuming it's not a depleting pile only it's also growing but what will you do if that wouldn't be sufficient we if we would see that we didn't have a sufficient pile just like any other central bank – looks at currency reserve and makes trade to be sure that there is enough currency in reserve I don't know if I should say that I'm sad or that I'm a dad – able to tell you that there are quite a few have you been able to acquire so I'm actually not worried about this happening anytime soon we are all the time by two minutes apologize for that one but thank you all again for coming I love being here it's great to seeing you let's have fun together




Comments
  1. Which leads to the question: if the markets had suddenly shown a dramatic drop in prices of PLEX what action would they take?  Would they try to remove existing PLEX, raise the real world price of PLEX, or add more attractive product/isk sinks?

  2. The real world economy does effect eve… because it's a subscription based game with a PLEX system allowing purchase of gaming time from other players who purchase that time with real money.

  3. You guys should check out this EXTRAORDINARY website called FIREPA.COM . You can make money online and start working from home today as I am!

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    When does the fall select the worthless prose?
    The important laugh bargains the sea.
    The color fabricates the vessel.

  4. So you want someone that got no idea what the game really is about, to tell the people that know what the game is about on what the game is about and what they like and dislike.
    This was presented at Fanfest, a party that CCP host so players can talk and actually meet the devs that make the game they play. Do you expect that where devs and players meet shouldn't be between devs and players and insted be advertisers and players?
    Awesome use of logics dude.

  5. Armageddon in 2003 54mil isk
    Armageddon in 2013 91mil isk in Jita
    Hurricane in 2013 46,9mil isk
    Efficient my ass, that only mean that isk is even less worth something now then it was back in 2003. You need more isk then to buy the same ship, just take a look at the Armageddon, it sure isn't as cheap as it once use to be. Paying more for the same thing is the definition of inflation. For the same amount of money that you used to get a BS for now get you a cane, have fun.

  6. Speaking in a 2nd language about Economics (and a video game!) and you think this is 'sub-par'? You are going to be hell on wheels when you graduate hi-school…

  7. didn't expect to see a debate between Keynesian and Austrian Free Market economics at the end there. I guess we all know where that economist stands unfortunately.

  8. Are you kidding me? This kinda presentation is not made by any other company, and this man is speaking a second language in the context of complex economics THAT HE HELPED CREATE, Shut up moron, as someone with aspergers, I can type fucking fine to yell at you on a fucking computer,

  9. No. I am not going to punch myself in the face because you ask me. Actually I distance myself from such a pathological attitude towards and from my fellow human beings. And yes I will insist to make comments, especially when a quality company such as CCP lets itself be represented by someone who makes sub par presentations.

  10. I really hope not too see any more of your retarded comments ever again, please punch your self in the face next time you get the urge to write something on youtube.

  11. 33:10 I find it odd that, in a game that is almost completely PvP centric, they would manipulate the economy to prevent financial crises. Bring on the depression already.

  12. China is screwed (and they are slowly fixing by buying up all the gold they can) because their foreign exchange reserves are in us dollars or worthless us treasury debt. Their buffer is shrinking and shrinking and the government can't afford war deficits without destroying the currency if their foreign reserve buffer devalues. If China completely goldifies and gets off of foreign oil (liquid salt thorium reactors), and curb kensyianism in their middle class, China will be unstoppable.

  13. Central banks print their own currency out of thin air to acquire foreign exchange reserve to prevent their currency from rising above the pegged currency. They sell these reserves when the currency is sinking below the pegged currency. Central banks can infinitely peg-down because the printing press is infinite. Pegging-up is limited to the foreign exchange reserves acquired from prior printing. If they run out of reserves, they have to devalue the peg or let the currency float (& devalue).

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